COVID-19 thoughts so far

Thinking out loud here:

This is the impact of COVID-19 in Australia so far, plus some hypotheticals:

Many Chinese restaurants in Sydney are suffering from huge reductions of patrons. How long can a restaurant last with reductions of 10, 20 or up to 70% of patrons? They will have to reduce staff hours, or cut staff altogether. If it goes on long enough, they can’t pay rents. Their landlords are then under pressure.

Despite being an island nation with stringent bio security controls, we’ve already had 25 cases and a woman in the Gold Coast may have infected up to 40 more. It’s just been reported that 1 man has died in Perth

We have stopped all direct flights from China for weeks, but what about the flights before that? Couldn’t it be possible that someone came here with the virus without even knowing?

People currently in China can still come to Australia if they spend 14 days in another country. This is the route many students have to take to get back in time for their studies

Now Australia is banning flights from Iran. I expect it will ban flights from Italy and South Korea very soon – but politicians can be dumb

We are screening people for symptoms, but what if people don’t show symptoms until later? By that time, just one person can infect scores of people without even knowing. And then those go on to infect others, and so forth.

This is how it will go to pandemic level. So far, we’ve delayed the spread but it’s only a matter of time before it explodes

When it does explode, people with suspected symptoms will be forced to stay at home. Others may fear getting the virus and stay at home anyway

Not all work can be done at home. Those businesses where this is not possible will be down in staff and may have to shut down while this persists

If schools and childcare centres are closed, parents will also have to stay at home to look after them, further disrupting the work force

Scared of the easily transmittable nature of the virus, people will restrict going to shops, restaurants, bars etc.

What percentage of society can be shut down and still allow normal functions to work?

In the epicenter of this drama in China, the government has had to fly in food supplies. But pharmacies and other stores are closed. If you’re without something essential it could be very bad for you. Is this a sign of things to come if Australia gets as bad? Could the Australian government even do what the Chinese government has done in quarantining their cities?

I’m not scared of catching the virus, I’m young I should be fine. I don’t want to catch it and spread it to others, especially my grandparents. I’m also more worried about the effect this will have on society and on the economy.

I’ve been waiting for a recession because it is good for my FI plans, but this could be something else altogether. All of my reading on FI does not prepare me for a recession due to a world wide pandemic.

The other thing is that my parents are about the age of retirement. They’re not well off. I’m scared of what a recession will do to their superannuation. They simply don’t have the time to wait for their super balances to recover. I’ve encouraged them to think about moving it to cash for the time being. Better to not lose what little they have.

Many things to worry about…